while the emerging markets are fighting, the rupee is slipping..touching 72

The rupee dollar exchange rate has crashed to the threshold figure of 72 and it was expected..The transition from 69 to 72 is so fast for various reasons..The dollar was not only strong but was expected to be strong on the back of clear inflation and interest differentials between the U S and India.given the tight money conditions and expectation of enhanced dollar strength, the exit of portfolia capital was swift and tha outflow of capital accelerated the tendency towards depreciation.

Since RBI knew full well that given the overvaluation of rupee its fall was certain in an atmosphere of dollar strength and it did not opt for any aggressive intervention.The very fact that RBI kept quiet and said the market will find its own level was the pointer that the rupee fall will not be followed by any intervention..It implicitly meant talking down of rupee,though.
It is learnt that a separate window has been opened for meeting the dollar demand for oil imports and that will not directly add to the dollar demand in the market.All said and done heavy imports and sluggish exports do not give much hope that an even balance between demand for foreign exchange and supply can be achieved...

High reserves  give  strength to beat speculation but the way in which the rupee is molested while other emerging markets are fighting causes concern..rising oil price and falling rupee are the double edged weapon tearing the macroeconomic fabric of the nation..
Let us hope that the rupee will stabilize soon

India's cocktail of inflation and devluation mix, an inevitable fallout.

On August 20 I sent  a paper on rupee dollar slide to a management journal and I articulated the reasons for the fall of rupee..Again I wrote in the blog a few days back It is just to recap and tell again that when domestic conditions are equally as bad as the geo political and external econmic environment, rupee cannot be expected to behave in a contrarian way.

Although the Turkish crisis was the immediate proximate factors the underlying reasons are many and they are interlinked...To recap, higher and higher international crude oil prices even while the dollar is stronger,widening of current account deficits, exit of foreign investors,US sanctions against Iran, continuing  U S protectionist stance which keeps away the exports of emerging markets,Higher inflation in India  relative to the rest of the world( thus making the currecy overvalued), have all played havoc with the rupee.
Student friends, a few only are angry and unhappy that I am painting rupee as the worst performing Asian currency and foolishly cite Russian and Brazilian currency as the worst sufferers..The word Asian has escaped from their eye as their thinking process is colured and condioned by the hate politics engendered in the country.
Be that as it may,let me say  that RBI has clearly stated  that  the rupee will be allowed to find its value in the market and intervention will take place only when there is volatility.The only consolation is there has been a great spike in inward remittances from gulf and in 2017 the  inflow is $69 billion which is more than the amount sent by non residents of any country..
India has become the laboratory experiment for the cocktail of devaluation and inflation mix..and all our inflation targetting will be tested .
Since all currencies have fallen there is not much room for gaining any extra milege for our exports where as the imports of diverse goods mainly oil will skyrocket and that exchange rate pass through will raise domestic inflation.Already stupid federal government has raised the excise and reaped the revenue gain playing with economics..
will they have some sense in reducing that component drastically to give some relief to the people who have elected this government.

Fall and fall of the rupee:a few explanations for its persistence and RBI knows what it must do

Indian rupee has touched an all time low ..71 per the USD..Since January 2018 it has fallen almost 10%..Thus retaining. its status as the worst performing currency this year ..It is not just rupee that has fallen and almost all the emerging market currencies have got the beating against the the US dollar

.The reasons are not far to seek  .current account deficits in these countries has been widening for quite some time..The rise in international oil price is one of the principal factors pushing up the import cost and causing strain on current account .Despite the fact that the keralites have sent a massive  amount for the repair and rehabilitation of the flood affected home ,the remittances BOP continues to be in trouble..

 In the sluggish world economy, dominated and frustrated by Trump's trade war exports have suffered ..with little  net capital inflow and rising dollar requirements  for oil imports the pressure is on rupee. Furthermore, the tight monetary conditions and expectations of higher interest rate in the US has made dollar stronger.The dollar index which measures the value of dollar against the host of major currencies has registered a rise of nearly 8% since Feb this year..

so the underlying reasons for the fall and fall of rupee is partly domestic, our widening current account deficits and  also due to the exogenous factor namely the strength of dollar on the back of tightening of monetary policy in the U S..In August alone it fell by 3 percent plus.

Going by the estimates of experts in the field the rupee is undervalued even at 71 and hence RBI is not feverish or panicky to arrest the slide if it happens by market forces..But it is keen to contain the volatility..RBI will be active in case the rupee shows the tendency to cross 72 the upper ceiling  as it is perceived to be the danger mark for more intervention..

Thus far there is implicit talking down of rupee and the tune will change as it still slides further.The secular depreciation of rupee is not a surprise to the author  the blog writer ..The worrisome fact is that it will escalate the cost of imports, engender inflation and may not help much on export front as other currencies of emerging markets have fallen .at best it can help maintain the competitiveness And that is the only situation in the hopeless situation...