Sunday, June 4, 2017

Three years after Modi; Mr PM awake, arise and listen to good economist ;cow can wait

Growth statistics is never free from any controversy.As expected the political thunderbolt of demonetization has had a deleterious fall out on growth.As if to add insult to the injury comes bad news from Washington that  the seven percent growth rate of the government is  manipulated  one and that the actual growth rate is around 5.5% only argues Prof Vijay Joshi an economist of Oxford university
While participating that  in the discussion on saturday he made a pertinent observation that government has unleashed this higher number of 7 %  in order to enthuse  and reassure that the economy os ok under the present circumstance.He says and challenges that in no sector7% growth could be shown.Exports and imports have stagnated.The organized  formal sector has witnessed the decline in jobs.
Manufacturing sector has grown in a stagnant fashion.Bank advances to industrial sector has declined in the reccent years.More particularly capital goods sector has shrunk and stagnated In 2011 Investment constituted 34 % of of our GDP and thad has remarkably declined to 24%.It is difficult to believe that GDP  is growing at 7 % every year  
If the present trend continues for the next 25 years you cannot reach the 7% growth To achieve this rate everyone has to work in a united way.On a sustained long term basis it is difficult for a democratic country like India to register 7 to 9% growth rate.
In recorded economic history only three nations namely China,South Korea and Taiwan have attined this on a sustained basis/Although Modi's government is  functioning well it has not given the importance to education and health that they deserve.
In this respect the oxford university professor reminds the policy makers that Amarthya Sen matters most  a point that I have highlighted in one of my student's Phd thesis

No comments: