Shifting Narratives on the goals of demonetization,a clear proof,it was fundamentally flawed ...

When demonetization was imposed like the financial emergency , in 2016 the author and the architect thundered that the primary aim was to stamp out the cult of black money and root out corruption .we were also told that  it will help check the terror funding by eliminating counterfeit notes and also usher in a digital economy from cash economy .what has happened to those objectives ?Did note ban eliminate black money and tackle corruption ?

Those who were  rooted in Marxist and Keynesian traditions and those who also know how capitalism functions ,were  skeptical of the measure and within a few days of its launch started recording their contrary opinion that it will be a spectacular failure and cause a collateral damage to the economy .

It is now history that how it impacted the people – the varied segments of the economy from farmers to traders,from migrant labour to all informal economy and all those who did not have any secured employment .The confiscation of cash from the ordinary ,and leaving the black money in tact with the crooks ,- albeit in the new pink coloured notes ,was the most cruel act in the recent history .The meanest part of the drama was to invoke nationalism to cajole the affected to bear short term pain for long term gain.This effective fooling ,going on giving false hopes , to cover up one’s own inadequacy was the height of the shallowness and crookedness of the measure .

This discourse on demonetization underwent multiple narratives as the prospects of unearthing black money became a remote possibility. Authorities defended by saying that it was not meant for weeding out the black money .Once the fake notes started appearing ,they did not want to talk about tackling  the terror money funding as the important objectives .when the digital transactions had their own peculiar problems like cyber crime and many fraudulent episodes came to light ,they said the target was not cashless economy but instead less cash economy .once it was pointed out that the cash in circulation in 2017-18 was more than what it was before 2016-demonetization period,the narrative changed .The FM came with a new theory that actually the objective was to transform the non tax complaint country into the tax complaint nation and from that perspectives  the objective of note ban has been achieved ..what is indefensible ,they have defended ;what is irrational and idiotic they have treated in the name of rationality .

  Not only that the fond hope that at least three to four lakks crores worth 500 and 1000 rupee notes would not return and to that extent the liabilities of RBI will be extinguished and that will accrue as dividends to the federal government which will help solve the fiscal deficit .

Even while it was clear that the measure was a failure ,the  supports   glorified it  and critics denounced  and demonized it.  It is now current history that under the combined onslaught of  both demo and GST which virtually choked  the aggregate demand  was virtually choked and the economy pushed into a tailspin of recession affecting  people.

will God Help PM and conspire to give one more innings ?

Demonetization was one of the greatest exogenous disturbances which shocked and surprised the nation and also the world .After the initial euphoria, and praise , the scene changed . Sensing that his foolish measure ,was causing maximum inconvenience and the arrival of ew notes were taking time,and virtually there was no viable solution in sight PM Modi appealed to the people :

Give me 50 days time to restore the normalcy I will catch the black money ,bear short term pain  for long term pain .Like  soldiers in the army front ,you show your solidarity and stand by me .

Did he tell the truth?No Even if Nasik press worked non stop it would take months to print ythat massive amount which was printed over a period of 15 years .

Again he fooled them by saying that the black money holders became jittery and nervous and they will lose sleep.what a cruel way of wounding the finer sensibilities of the ordinary people who had surrendered their life time wealth held in cash..

It was obvious and apparent that it is only the poor who lost the sleep and not the crooks .Again it is the poor who stood in the serpentine queue and a few of them lost their life .The pain was not short term but persisted for long and eventually proved to be lasting pain.The daily wage earners and those who worked in small  and medium enterprises ,lost their  job and income ,due to acute cash and credit crunch.

The supreme court feared revolt and riots and blasted the government for unleashing this measure without adequate preparation .

RBI could not make the PM to listen to reason .The FM  also proved to be  a very insensitive man and a great disaster.Former BJP leader  termed this measure as an unmitigated disaster .

Once the RBI let the cat out of the bag  that 99.3 %  of the demonetized notes were returned, the narratives on demo has changed  and the FM came with a new explanation that the objective was not properly understood by the critics ;it was basically meant for transforming the largely non tax compliant country into the tax compliant nation and also make the nation cashless….yes the ordinary masses became cashless, jobless, and the economy became growth less and poor are clueless when the leader will announce the names of the offenders keeping huge fortune in Swiss banks .The stated objectives were hardly realized and  for the economic sin he committed ,will people remove him from the seat or the supreme will conspire to help him; it will be known in a matter of few months .

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Admirers want Modi to come back, the critics and those who have suffered say, sir enough is enough, thank you we bless you for a healthy life

Modi is an avatar of God and he will do no wrong ?!

Those who have an enormous love, respects and regards for PM Modi want him back as PM once again to complete the unfinished agenda of controlling black money( ? ) and root out terrorism once and for all !.They pray for his second innings and we also wish him good luck. For these tribe, well educated and well settled in life  who do not know the colour of poverty and the shade of deprivation ,lack of growth, employment crisis, social and communal tensions are not a matter of concern at all or any  significance .

In terms of design implementation and management  how note ban  was a disaster they will never understand as their blind faith and belief in the leader will not allow .more importantly this motley group do not have basic economics .

At the other extreme, there are youngsters, inclusive of the new brigade for 2019 election ,and the affected small traders, farmers, trials and dalits and so on ,-they are frustratingly irritated with the style of functioning and the content of governance ,his betrayal, false promises and  cumulative lies,on the issue of black money and also terror money, not to speak of the series of inimical  incidents that took place under his regime ,disturbing social and communal peace, triggering fear psychosis  would say :Go back Sir ,enough is enough .

The  anger and resentment right from demonetization and GST to other issues still linger in their mind as unforgivable acts . The former measure namely note ban was undoubtedly an irrational one –largely self inflicted as it was ill conceived and wrongly timed and also carried forward without proper home work. The latter, the goods and service Tax was an ongoing project- conceived by the previous regime but questioned by great Modi , when he was CM of a state then, but fondly embracing it in  his new role as PM of the country and also hastily implementing it  at  savage rates unmindful of its deleterious  impact on the people or economy  without listening to the opposition.

  

The cocktails of the twins, killed jobs, dislocated business and people ,derailed growth and virtually pushed the world’s fastest growing economy into the slowest one at that time.To my knowledge

This is the first case study in the entire economic history how one man’s folly and misplaced ego ,pushed the well behaved and  dynamic economy into a tailspin of recession unnecessarily and unilaterally .

Thus far, our honourable PM did not express any regret for the damage caused .This is the worst financial terrorism or tsunami of the highest order .

The root cause is the centralization of political and economic power at his feet without any check and balance to discipline him and make him walk on  the road, useful to the economy and the people at large .They do not want 8 lane high way  but a usable road which will give them meaningful job and if a tea vendor  turned out PM could not offer who else can do it ?

Small wonder then ,his famous slogan then ,”minimum government and maximum governance “ remains as slogan even now ; and in his political dictionary  Modi means powerful God and he will do wrong and therefore no one should ever attempt to pin point his omission and commission.

For the leader and the people who have suffered under him, the billion dollar question is now or never ? should he be unseated from power or allowed to continue for another five years to alter the idea of India completely  in his own image

 Or Will he change for the better become humble and really do something for the nation as a whole  when he get the second innings ?His well wishers are confident .we also wish him good luck..when there is no enemy on the distant horizon as he used to say earlier, seems to be true now when there is no united opposition to take over him and fight .  

Demystifying the economics of demonetization :excerpts from child's guide

Before 2014 election 2014 Modi, promised growth , jobs and liquidity. He accused of Manmohan’s government for its jobless growth and mega corruption; so the election was fought on the theme of eradicating corruption..He thundered with his 56’’ chest ,in case he was elected to power  within 100 days he will bring the black money and deposit 15 lakhs in each individual bank account.All of us know what had  happened  in the last five years .His critical inability to unearth the black money and the compulsion to face the assembly elections in five states in the mid course of his political journey ,propelled him  ,to take another false step in the form of note ban to divert and distract attention.This he did despite the advice in well informed educated circle who know the subject that note ban was no solution to tackle black money .It was another irrational measure done in the name of rationality and sincerity that here is a person  who is bold enough  to collar the culprit ,and mop up the black money and distribute it  to the poor !

Did he deliver 2 crores job ? was there any meaningful growth ?Do the economic survey and the interim budget really tell the truth ? why there was no transfer ency and hesitancy leading to the resignation of  straight forward people leaving the organisational structure ?  in releasing the employment data? Unemployment is 45 years low and economic growth is five years low !

what has happened to his election eve speech to bring swiss black money ?when will 15 lakhs amount be deposited in bank of each individual' account ?

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was the war against black money in 2016 ,notional or real? was it a surgical strike against the black money holders ?or a massive carpet bombing against poor and lesser privileged ? Did any rich man stand in the queue or accidentally die?   

 
  The depressing reality, the crude reality is that ,Growth has faltered not because there was something wrong with the economy in 2016  but because it was derailed by a stupid measure called demonetization which created  a serous cash and credit crunch leading to fall in aggregate demand and a rise  in unintended inventories ,fall in  investment along with the fall in consumption.This resulted in declining  ,jobs  and later virtual  disappearance of jobs;, and liquidity was sucked in for long and the banks flooded with cash could not lend for varied reasons ; this is how the recessionary tendencies got generated and enveloped the economy and intensified the employment crisis which  had been worse earlier .. .

scent of flowers making love with song of birds...I am romancing with my subject

Recent revelations  by RBI that  demonetization was not done to unearth the black money ,weed out the fake notes and tame the counterfeits stemming from the border .It has also made it  very clear the non currency component of black money is very high and held in the form of gold and real estate and demonetization can hardly affect it .And yet the the architect and the author of the drama our PM fooled the people on that day fateful day that it will stamp out the cult of black money and corruption and the holders of black money will lose sleep.

RBI was not in favour of the decision .Since the authorities had taken a decision unilaterally despite the fact the discussion was going on for six months before taking the decision,RBI yielded and said it was being done to replace or reduce the size of cash economy and encourage digital economy which I have questioned long ago.
There are some more interesting to say on this contentious and controversial subject  and that can wait .why the hell at an age when I invest time in discussions and reading on mystical states, nature and even religion, I am at meditation because it gives more pain and pleasure in documenting something for posterity.
"Like the scent of flowers was making love with the song of birds",I am romancing with my discipline Economics..
good night friends 

I am a simple person, but complex personality to others

Dsam on Dsam-from my Adelaide Diary 1
memoirs

I am a simple person and yet a complex personalty to others
 I have made some sweeping statements about those who wrecked
and ruined our economy and also molested my Tamil land
in all its manifestations as the Tamil rulers here were not really leaders 
and yielded to all kinds of machination.and yet I feel happy
I have done my job listening to my conscience and heart .I am not anybody's puppet


I am transparent and outspoken and not a controversial subject
Recent developments?/revelations have made me to
realize and internalize the fact that
I must choose not to say anything  not at times
but many a time  practicing silence ,the language I must learn
I am grateful to the Lord for everything he has given


(Feeling frustrated with the tardy progress in work,looked inward,
with the supportive notes from Adelaide ) 

A lengthy life story of a tea vendor ,living in honesty and truth, a role model Indian,making India run like a race car

For quite some time ,Dsam had a disturbed sleep and sitting at the desk till late night became a norm.He is worried about the sleep deprivation and it affects his health and concentration on work.The fact is that the work alone is causing this nuisance  of getting up 1 am or going to bed at  1 am and getting up at 3 53 ..The following incident happened on one of these days .

It is all about the tea vendor ..Do not mistake me It is not about Modi our PM, the warrior and savior of the poor .It is about  the story of  one real tea vendor who started from the scratch.. A true life story  which brought real transformation in Dsam.he would be a different man from today  fully mesmerized by  his

On that day the weather was chill..He typed the notes..He was quoting the opening para of  the banned novel written by  D H Lawrence while concluding  the discourse on demonetization..Around 5 30 am with full protection to insulate from the cold and chill weather he went to his tea shop and surprised to find the owner and not the boy who normally opens the shop at 4.

While sipping tea he asked the tea vendor(henceforth called TV),whether he took his tea and pat came the reply :Sir I do not normally take tea or milk or coffee.sam was shocked and he could not believe it .He asked ,Are you joking ?

I am honest . Right from my childhood I have not taken ,he quipped .

He waited for me to  drink, as he knows  the tea must be hot for him.But sam forgot all these nonsense and remained eager to hear his story .unusually there was not much crowd during  those fprecious minutes. Otherwise he would not have completed it

He stared narrating:

I am one among the seven children in the family .a very very poor family .I studied till 4 th class only .I could not continue my studies because my dad did not have paisa to give me enen a single note book to write. Student friends will tear some pages from their note book and I manged for some days.How long one can go like this/the teacher will make me to stand outside the class room when I do not bring note book .It was shameful for me when other boys make fun of me .then it was done .I stopped going to school

I started working first at 75 paisa  per day and then at 2 rupee.then I went to Thiruvannamali and worked at brick producing  place for 6 rupees per day .Eventually I landed at Pondicherry and a benevolent  owner  gave me the job in his tea shop.At that time the ruling wage for a master  tea vendor was Rs 6 per day ,but I was offered Rs 10 and I was given the freedom to handle cash.The confidence and trust  that the owner had in me was so much that he did not even trust  his wife .He would keep the day’s collections  at the hotel itself and hand over the key to me .Honesty and hard work paid rich dividends  and  gradually moved out  and started my own business in this Ajantha corner  and by the divine will I got a trustworthy boy to help me and you have been seeing for more than two decades .

Dsam was stunned and bemused ..he told himself :Thank God .Fortunately demonetization was waiting in the wing  let the machine process it  and he was all praise for him.Then TV continued

Sir when our house property was divided  besides my share , I  bought the share of six brothers as I wanted that dad’s property should not go to others .

Did you help your brothers ,?

He replied “ only one brother was weak and had some problems I  financed his education till 10 th and I helped him in purchasing the plot  and also in the house construction partially .but do you know one thing ,He is well off now  and he is in good terms with other brothers  and  he has ignored me.I have not taken it to my heart . I was in a situation to help him and I did

Then dsam shared his experience in the women’s college he was working  and asked whether TV supplied tea there .

“Yes sir There was one lady officer who will place order while going to the college and I myself will go and deliver “

Did you have any chance to see the girls there ..I mean sight seeing ?

Sir I will never look at the girls I was brought up in the shadows of poverty  and economic deprivation TV told that he has never smoked nor took any drink and led a principled and disciplined life

The girl or extravagant life never attracted him ..led a simple life practicing work ethics and dsam remembered his father and he  was also reminded of his sense of diffidence in not looking at the girl’s side for more than 10 days  after his appointment as Assistant prof in a college near Tellicherry .

Dsam parted by telling him about Infosys Narayana Murthy  and how there is similarity between the Billionaire and him  in leading simple life .

One who wins over kamam and does work with ethics and live in truth and honesty  is very rare to come across-It is only this kind of commoners who save this country from recession .when china is slumping people like him the true vendors  make the country to race like a car but the fake tea vendor shoots the tyre of theracing car making it to come to grinding halt  …...