what's happening to world money now?

The title given above has been my self financed project for more than a decade and that has been in a state of suspended animation.In my PhD thesis I had addressed this question way back in the early 90's.

Despite the progressive decline in America's economic strength the U.S dollar continued to play the role of the major key currency as there was no effective alternative for it as Richard N Cooper had pointed out many decades ago .

The brain child of Nobel Laureate professor R A Mundell Euro which was supposed to dethrone the dollar had its own existential dilemma ever since its birth and the European debt crisis exposed the vulnerability of the monetary union of Europe without being a fiscal union and absence of lender of the last resort to help the afflicted nations.

They are now part of history..Close on the heels of the corana virus and the indifference shown by the Trump administration is now the immediate cause for the loss of confidence  on the dollar.Against it's major trading partners currency the US dollar has plunged and it's also being captured by the phenomenal rise in the price of gold,viz.2000 U S dollars an ounce of gold which was just 34 dollars in 1934 when the dollar was devalued from its previous level of 28 dollars.

The prime villain of the piece is of course the gross mismanagement of the economy by Trump .The economic decline is much revealed through a massive rise in fiscal deficit and escalation in unemployment and the traditional safe haven hypothesis which lured the investors is now missing.The confrontation with China has  its share too.It has been making efforts to de dollarize their tade relations and they have alrady begun the process  to reduce the dollar mountain on which that have been sitting.

It appears that the post covid economics constrains and contains the role of the dollar as a key currency..

As the response to the disease a massive tax cuts and government expenditure has contributed to escalation in deficit and there's reason to believe that in the near term the deficit  will be close to 20% of the GDP of America.

To me as a student of international finance it's clear that the days of dollar are being numbered now and the US must measure its steps.But the facts are contraary to what wish.

Reflecting on the futility of our barren existence on this beautiful planet

Before coming here where did I eagerly frequent ?

When the time comes for exit where will I float and land.

Freed from the constraints of the body,

Will there be any immense possibility to flow like water

 Whisper like a wind and rise like  A  mountain.

Fully aware, there is no return ticket to come back to earth and

Not knowing of many whys and How’s and also when and where

the soul will rest , on its journey after abandoning  the body

I exist here for a while as a traveler/ and as a tourist ,

Engaging myself in endless arguments and debates

Meaningless and sterile conversations with fools about this and that

Foolishly or wisely ,with clarity or all the vagueness under the sun

And finally come out of the mess fully confused and bewildered

Fully conscious  of  the futility and emptiness of the very barren existence here.

And the irresponsible rulers, compounding the chaos, by abusing the power.

Have you heard about the short film , 638 ways to kill Castro ?

Fiedal Castro is a legend in the literature on Revolutionary struggle. The standard criticism against him was that he was bulldozing democracy ,but  I must hasten to add  and answer his critics  that his government was people centric and hence people friendly; under his regime all the basic facilities inclusive of education and health care for the poor were  in  adequate measure ; he established more medical colleges that percapita availability of doctors  was  the lowest one and that Cuba was always ready to export doctors in case of emergency anywhere in the world ; and to his credit  no street was named after him nor was there any of his statue erected anywhere in cuba.

The escalating open war between him and the US was well known. Russia  stood  by him and was ready to extend all possible help. Scared by the Russian shadow in her soil, the U S cancelled  the import of 70 lakh tones of sugar from Cuba and Castro retaliated by nationalizing the US assets worth $850 million.

The U S realized  at one stage that more than  killing Cuba’s economy  what was imperative was to eliminate the leader himself. All possible routes were explored to kill him and based on that a short film was taken later.

Having realized that he was a lover of Havana suruttu(cigarattte),a bomb was concealed into it. It did not click. At one stage  more than thousand people were armed to kill him, but he escaped. Poison was mixed in his food and medicine, not to  speak of spraying dangerous virus into his scuba diving suit.

Once his former lover, Marito Lorence  met him and told:”We will celebrate our union by tasting the ice cream.”He smelled the rat .

“Why do you take so much pain, my dear..you can very well shoot me straight and finish me,”said Castro handing over the gun to her ,with all smile.

The lady was shocked and she fell at his feet and surrendered.

When his health deteriorated, the news leaked out that he would take complete rest..That was also ridiculed by the US president George Bush. He thanked the good God by saying that He will remove him from the world soon.

Castro had abundant sense of humor and retorted thus: I think Bush has forgotten that the very same God has saved me 638 times from his enemy…

Protest movement and people’s struggles everywhere are undermined and the voice of dissent is treated as anti national activity..The rulers intoxicated with the arrogance of power like drunken monkeys resort to all sorts of oppression to terrorize and intimidate the poor denying their rights and entitlement..

They should not be disheartened. He began with 82 soldiers to start with and told later that it was just sufficient to have 10 or 15 people to win the struggle. Eventually the incredible belief in oneself combined with good attitudes and actions would determine the outcome and victory…

The stock Market is not the Economy

In the previous post following Paul Krugman we made a pertinent observation that stock market performance, the rise and fall of stock prices do not actually represent the real state of the real economy.

The relationship is spurious,and at times, simply nonexistent.How could one forget the quote of Paul Samuelson made way back in 1960 that market had predicted nine of, the past five recessions

The question of strong stock prices in the face of weak economy should not baffle anyone.Because as in 2008 crisis ,this time too,expansionary policy of the Fed depressed interest rate.

This was the reflection of weak economy and even with weak dollar,either investment or exports have responded.

Indeed the weak conomy created a fertile climate for surge in stock prices,as low interest rate made other avenues less lucrative.

This does not imply that the upward trend will continue.In an unstable and unpredictable economy selective havest is being done and by the time the market capitalization has reached beyond sustainable level,the scenoria mig,ht change

One thing is clear now as it was known earlier, that stock market is not economy and that in a loose monetary environment crashing economy ,the weak economy do support strong stock prices

Paul Krugman revelation on the recent jump in stock prices

Ever since the corana virus invaded the humans the real economy has got the beating . Individual  national economies have lost their fat and weight and GDP figures are driven down.The jobless have gone up in almost all countries.while the real economy is crashing, the stock market which does not always reflect the real state of the Economy, mostly driven by greed and avarice, more like a gambler's den is now on song.

Paul Krugman recently has given more insight as to why the stock prices are on the rise when the real economy is weak.

Although on the heels of Covid the stock market fell it has bounced back now to pre corona level.This disconnect wil be surprising.Krugman tells the deeper reasons.

Despite the economy as a whole is weak, there are stocks which are strong.So investors having no other greener pasture grab those stocks.Result. Stock market is on song

Kugman says that the interst rate on 10year old government bonds is only0.6 percent down from 3% in late 2018.Adjuted for inflation return from bond is nagative.

I have triggered your curiosity to read more international financ

For long I have not written in blog.I will resume my blog writing

The nation is clueless and directionless

Ever since  this government  came to power,I have been  lamenting  the state of the world, both economic  and political, in the great subcontinent  called  India,  the way so many people  in the ruling  party were hard hearted  and closed minded about the plight of others, the Muslim, the dalit, the poor and disadvantaged..

The protector has become  an oppressor, the fence has become  the eater of crops.

The Yes Bank has become  No bank.

Long ago demonetisation  pauperised  the poor  by sucking  money into banks  only  to be deployed  back into the corrupt  segment  of the corporate  sector  with  the full  connivance  of the state..

The banking  which  touches the millions  of people  lives, their savings  and capacity  for spending  have been  hijacked  by the criminals. 

Banks will  lose credibility. 

The payments mechanism  will suffer.

The fear of losing  money will  enhance  the liquidity  preference  of the general  public. 

This will  necessitate  to pump more cash, raising  the cash to deposit  ratio.

Already banks refuse to lend to the needy poor..

What will happen  to financial  intermediaries to the genuine  real  economy. 

Translating poet Bhararhi -1

Maha Kavi ,Bharathi was a national poet who wrote on varied themes in Tamil and through his poems he triggered the spirit of freedom and real Indian nationalism.I do not know how may indians are aware of his contributions.One thing is sure enough , like  Gandhi,Ambedkar Periyar and Patel, he is a great social reformer and will be relevant for all times .

Depending upon time, mood and my ability to translate ,I will strive to convey the poetic thrust Of the great poet Bharathiyar for the global audience.

On the river ganges, in a moon lit night
In the pleasant company of young keralite girls,
singing song in the beautiful sweet Telugu language.
we shall row our boats and make it a routine to play.

Our poet was for real integration...I have just taken a single stanza which was not difficult for me translate..
Among the impending work translating Bharathi will have a priority...I will attempt the possible.