Ruminating on cashless economy under the weight of demonetization

Why dreaming cash less economy is a utopian idea ? Is India prepared for a full fledged digital econmy ? Is cashless economy the right objective ? With cashless transactions accounting to just 2 per cent, dreaming of cash-less economy is little better than nonsense Despite the rise in smart phone and internet access, by global standard, the penetration is less. Despite the rise in the level of literacy, India is still home to the largest population of illiterate adults in the world .The Huge percentage of uneducated population is also very high .Digital transactions are both risky and also costly . A massive security breach of 32 lakh debit cards, just months before demonetization was reported and that speaks of the security of digital payments. At a time when banking facilities are miles away from your house especially when you happen to live in remote, hilly regions where the nearest bank facility is easily 50-60 km away in the plains and there is no guarantee of receiving money even if one covers that distance what is the fun in advocating the role of machines ? To talk of a cashless economy in a country where the banking net work does not cover more than 30 % of population and the internet connectivity is also limited and the formal credit has consistently failed the rural people and hence dependent on the money lender is sheer supreme economic nonsense to talk in Milton Friedman language Is cashless economy the priority area? Why are the right priorities of the people , not understood Does any one talk about other indicators of health education sanitation social security and job prospects and compare with other countries ? This is a land of poverty and escalating inequality..No safe drinking water facility exists there is no water management at all .Not only the States but also the centre does politics over river water sharing and the corporate and politicians make money out of it. once the water is bottled and the nature’s bounty is for sale and the pipe line is replaced by diesel driven lorries water politics has become very real and it has emerged as the fountain head of corruption..All these generate black money; every one is aware of this. First we shall give basic education, and make a sincere attempt towards inclusive growth as also inclusive banking and make digital transaction free from cyber crime. Other things will automatically follow . ---

Demonetization and RBI :The central bank was helpless

Role of RBI .reputation gone , credibility lost and the institution undermined Became a scapegoat for all the failure and stupidity of the government It was clear that the RBI was forced to accept this measure and it was a one man show all along. Virtually it surrendered before the government for their political expediency and also exposed its incompetence in so many ways in handling this issue of note ban right from the start .The credibility and the autonomy of the Central bank was undermined; failure of the measure was evident by the frequent flip flops in rules and regulations so many times and RBI became the laughing stock. Those who remained patient and had chosen to exchange their old notes at their convenience anytime before December 30 were questioned and put to inconvenience The whole exercise undertaken ,in unwarranted fashion and inadequate preparation has exposed the shallowness and crookedness of the administrative machinery symbolized by PM and it was unfortunate that the RBI became the scapegoat and got fully exposed .Finding practical/ pragmatic ways to relieve the distress of the people was next to impossibility ” as it was humanly impossible .

Democracy at the cross road;common man has vote but he cannot realize its true value as the credible leader is scarcely available who will not dance to the greedy corporates

For long the congress had monopoly power over the centre as there was no viable and credible opposition..BJP wants to get into that type of situation and desires that it should not be questioned by any one as it is the only party free from corruption and all others are tainted and rascalised criminals. The utterances of this kind would irritate any one ,sane and right thinking Indian and they appear idiotic and also ridiculous given the anger and uneasiness with the five year rule of Modi .Any good leader will like a healthy opposition and that is the hall mark of democracy .here is a party and the leader to whom it has been mortgaged albeit temporarily, wants to run an authoritarian government treating people like a cattle , sorry ,the cow has more protection than human and separate ministry has been formed . Voices of dissent are suppressed, constitution is undermined and all instuitions are saffronised and back door rule runs in TN.It is to find its feet in the south and desires multi cornered contests where the splintered opposition without any ideological unity or a common consensus for leadership will cut each others’ throat . The opposition is divided and even a resurgence of congress in a few places will be music to the ruling BJP, as that will effectively divide the vote of dissent and help BJP. The arrogance of BJP stems from this disarray in opposition and its capacity to buy and arrange for opportunistic marriage with parties whose behavior will make the age old institution of prostitution look more credible and better . Even those who do not subscribe to Modi do not hesitate to join if there is a better price . This is how election arithmetic has operated and the event managers are faithfully exploring all the possibilities to exploit the brand names in politics .To what extent the volunteer at the bottom will vote even while leaders who were at loggerheads until recently come together for a honey moon now at the time of election The interesting thing is about the electoral politics is that there is no clean leadership and people have to choose between the tainted groups .That is why, the discredited Modi factor(after demonetization and record unemployment )as also the shallow and dynastic elements of congress ,are still salable commodities in the politics market which is one of the corrupt markets in the world . The new cash, the pink colored note ,handy to carry will be a much sought after paper by fellows who preach the virtues of digital transactions to ordinary people struggling for existence . There are constraints and compulsions for each party to position itself not to win but to make money and divide votes so that the big boss will have an advantage ; and various permutations and combination will be tried in each state to win by all possible means ;it will not be a cake walk for any one in 2019.In all probability it will be fought violently .I am not sure how far the demonetization factor will play a significant role in derailing the electoral chances of Modi and to what extent the type of alliance the BJP has formed will counter it .The advantage for Modi right now is that the opposition is not fully united in the true sense . There is a lot of myth and media hype built around Modi .Recently I read in some context , let me quote :Here was a “ Hindu nationalist who was for a decade an international pariah over his alleged role in the mass murder of Muslims in a region which he once administered, “and all of us know that many nations were not happy with his way of governance as a mute spectator in that massacre .He continues his agenda of hate politics and the nation is polarized on the basis of religion .Many a time I wonder how such a person , a factional leader could capture power by telling a series of lies to the gullible masses ;we can only blame the strange quirk of fate in the face of paucity of leadership. In a continental size of the country, with all diversities With very little to show and many things to hide and unemployment data reflecting jobless growth ,he will invoke the slogan of stability, opposition intent on looting the country ,uncertainty of coalition government etc. Economics is not in his favour despite appreciating rupee and stable and low official inflation rate but manipulative politics they will rely upon as they did earlier . The main make in India project is how to make money at the time of election. During demonetization times many crooks made huge amount of money .The functioning of democracy as it is now is more flawed and it will not represent the true will of the people and many dissensions and divisions among various groups create a fertile atmosphere to switch sides ;eventually everything is boiled down to get the best price in the electoral market .Since each vote counts, the pressure groups and lobbies are active and these intermediaries will stand to gain and open the outlet for black money which is freely paraded and what the EC will catch is only a tiny fraction of total black money put into circulation .The common man has the power to tilt the equation .but alas,he does not have any credible leader to look forward to,and there are too many prime ministerial candidates and invariably most of the candidates are of dubious and doubtful distinction ,carrying the cross of family name, or caste or religion tag .. I have stopped watching TV and to that extent I am freed from sight and sound pollution..Whom so ever comes , the nation is not going to make any dramatic turn around and if the people are allowed to carry their work on the farm and small units and related economic activities from political goondas and varied oppressive machinery of the government ,that will be a great service .The corporate centric and anti people government cannot be expected to do something good at a fundamental level to alleviate their suffering .

will Modi get one more term ?Is there any residual role for Note ban to hit him at the time of election ?

Will Modi get one more term ? if India had been a matured democracy,with sufficient economic literacy and political maturity ,it is easy to answer and say he will be shown the door .But under the confused and media orchestered and corporate engineered hype , and also the opposition not fielding a common candidate ,the chances are that the advantage is with the gentleman who calls himself as the first chowkidar,exploiting all kinds of mean mentality and now he is equating with patriotism. Can a chowkidar seen in the company of bad ,say sharing dais with the corrupt gentleman who had gone to prison and also striking alliance with the corrupt elements to the core ,to exploit the political vacuum left by a lady who herself was also an embodiment of mega corruption ,but ruled like a lioness and could become CM despite going to jail be considered as the crusader of corruption and champion of development ?The democracy in India has gone too bad like a rotten egg which is also in demand just because there is no alternative to eat. Having done more mischief and wounded the finer sensibilities of many, ordinary people he has thrown some doles –the official currency corruption on the eve of election ?He is the same person,who ,ignored the farmers’’ plight, virtually killed the economy by note ban and hastily implementedGST,this chowkidar has suddenly remembered election time and seeks blessings to continue his task of propagating hate politics ,the divisive and destructive politics ,saffronising everything under the sun forgetting that India is a vastly diverse and inherently a complex countryand can never be allowed to be shaped in the images of chowkidars namely the distorted Hindutuva India. As the last three assembly elections had thrown open some surprise if key states retaliate with reasoned and well balanced mindset their arrogance will be humbled . Virtually there is nothing substantial to show as achievements .That is why this rhetoric of chowkidar and Nehru bashing and Raghul teasing .Last time the Hindi heart land showered boon and the alliance arithmetic also helped .with the divided opposition, congress almost reduced to a regional party in select states, but not willing to acknowledge it and a few treating it as unwanted luggage , BJP in power has an advantage , but there are many ifs and buts and pendulum can change any way when the D date nears; it will be one of the violent elections ever fought. Will chaos theory be at work ? The only hope for those who do not want to give a second innings lies in the butterfly effect of demo; will people remember at the time of voting ?True ,among the success lists he does not want to make any reference to demo but they will justify it by statistics and a series of lies .When Economic survey and budgeatary document were bristling with distorted facts can’t the event mangers invent a different story . In the wake of demonetization in key state assembly elections , he could easily win and the suffering caused to the people did not stand in the way from winning the elections , but close on the heels of RBI revelation that 99.3 % of demonetized notes returned t bank and the deepening employment crisis must act as entry barriers for the second term .To what extent the drastic measure of Demonetization which we prefer to call as political thunderbolt will impact 2019 election is a moot point ; it may or may not be an election issue .I am not sure to what extent the affected people remember and recollect the loss of life and job , decline in growth and income under the combined onslaught of both demo and GST which virtually choked the aggregate demand , and pushed the economy into a tailspin of recession.? By now Mr Modi must have realized that his unilateral political adventure namely demonetization with a sp ecific political agenda to paralyse the opposition and freeze the party fund read electoral transaction demand for money , though helpful initially, has proved to be political disaster and a kind of suicide, as none of the objectives he mentioned on that fateful day night has been realized and 99.3 % of the demonetized notes has returned ; the fake money component of black money no one talks about now ; the counterfeit new notes have appeared demonstrating that in any currency rearrangement, , this kind of money will continue to emerge unless and until security features are tightened and the administration show the demonstrable evidence of credibility, honesty and integrity to checkmate. Will the affected ones remember and recollect the loss of life and job , decline in growth and income And whether the collective memory convert itself into votes,against Modi, there is no guarantee. I must hasten to add that Post- demonetization, election in five assemblies did not reveal any backlash to this populist measure which actually caused real suffering to the informal economy and poor .? How will the poor dalit and middle class behave?will the trading and business community which was most hit by the twin onslaught of demo and GST switch their loyalty and help the congress or a variant of Third front ?what is happening to core vote bank of BJP vote now ? what about the majority of the poor who were economically disabled and the religious minorities ? -- .on the other hand if there is a mass hysteria like post emergency kind of feeling and opposition combine , the common man will be politically enabled to dethrone the Raja kind of ruler –the 56’’ chest tall leader who has thrived well on lies and more lies .will they work now ? I am not a an expert and astrologer and predicting the outcome of election is as difficult as judging a cricket match; till last ball is bowled one cannot say .

Shifting narratives on politics,and heightened criminalization pf politics;ordinary people are spectators

.The politicians are supposed to serve the people and promote their economic well beings .They are expected to maintain high standard of morality, dignity and decency that Anna once talked about .In 1967 election riding on the anti- Hindi agitation wave of the student community –a spontaneous overflow of emotions and close on the heels of the rise in the price of rice ,the rising sun of DMK could capture the good will of the people and C N Annadurai could win election in the pleasant company of mega alliance ably formed and assisted by Rajaji,a great statesman , and others .During those days the candidates were from ordinary segments of the society- the lesser privileged and the hard work of the party workers –the real volunteers mattered most in ensuring victory .. Contrast the current tribe of contestants cutting across the political parties .The two shades of DMK having the label of Anna can hardly boost of that kind of dedicated workers in the fray. Now the elections are corporate driven and only those who can afford to spend many crores enter into the fray Do we have good and honest politicians who will qualify this standard ?There is more violence in words and at times the MP and MLA of the same party test their muscle power on the stage before the public or party people ,beating one another with cheppal(foot wear ). More than loyalty to the party and honesty of individuals what matters most is political and criminal background and his critical capability to spend money first and then to make money. It is only those candidates who can spend 40 to 50 crores are allotted seat .will they be expected to represent people or the corporate vested interests ?The ruling party fellows live in a world of illusion or delusion that they are above the law which should bend and protect them and the enforcement agencies must obey their command . When criminals have chosen to enter the legislature to amass fortune and also protect the cumulative accumulation of black wealth and at times one in three members of parliament is facing criminal cases, what type of governance we shall expect ?It is learnt that between 2004 and 2014 the number of candidates with serious criminal charges shot up from 266 to 908 and those elected as MPs from 60 to 120..Shankar Aiyar says :Parties in their pursuit hunt for winning candidates have enabled the vertical integration of money and muscle power in the electoral market . Now a new acronym has been launched chowkidar and these fools do not know they are adding fuel to the fire and the gentleman who rode to power on lies wants to reassert with mere slogans and terminology ,the power of lies.He has lost his credibility and moral authority to talk about good governance or battling corruption .His five year rule bears testimony what a leader of the country should not do .

Chowkidar remembers the people at election time without anything to boost of his own initiative :will God conspire now also ?

Will Modi get one more term ? if India had been a matured democracy,with sufficient economic literacy and political maturity ,it is easy to answer and say :he will be shown the door .But under the confused and media orchestrated and corporate engineered hype , and also the opposition not fielding a common candidate ,the chances are that the advantage is with the gentleman who now calls himself as the first chowkidar,exploiting all kinds of mean mentality and now he is equating that term  with patriotism.How can a PM who had enjoyed the power for 5 years and lived on pure lies ,can again and again resort to cheap political stunt without being conscious that he has become a laughing stock !

Can a chowkidar seen in the company of bad ,say sharing dais with the corrupt gentleman who had gone to prison and also striking alliance with the corrupt elements to the core ,to exploit the political vacuum left by a lady who herself  was also an embodiment of mega  corruption ,but ruled like a lioness and could become CM despite going to jail  be considered as the crusader of corruption and champion of development ?The democracy in India has gone too bad like a rotten egg which is also in demand just because there is no alternative to eat.

Having done more mischief and wounded the finer sensibilities of many, especially the ordinary people  he has thrown some doles –the official currency corruption on the eve of election ?He is the same person,who ,ignored the farmers’’ plight, virtually killed the economy by note ban and hastily implemented,this chowkidar has suddenly remembered election time; he seeks blessings to continue his task of propagating hate politics ,the divisive and destructive politics ,saffronising everything under the sun forgetting that India is a vastly  diverse and inherently a  complex country and can never be allowed to be shaped in the images of chowkidars  namely  the distorted Hindutuva India. As the last three assembly elections had thrown open some surprise if key states retaliate with reasoned and well balanced mindset their arrogance will be humbled .

Virtually there is nothing substantial to show as achievements .That is why this rhetoric of chowkidar and Nehru bashing and Raghul teasing .Last time the   Hindi heart land  showered boon and the alliance arithmetic also helped .with the divided opposition, congress almost reduced to a regional party in select states, but not willing to acknowledge it  and a few treating it as unwanted luggage , BJP in power has an  advantage , but there are many ifs and buts and pendulum can change any way when the D date nears; it will be one of the violent elections  ever fought.

Will chaos theory be at work ?

The only hope for those who do not want to give  a second innings  lies in the butterfly effect of demonetization ; will people remember at the time of voting ?True ,among the success lists he does not want to make any reference  to demo but they will justify it by statistics and a series of lies .When Economic survey and budgetary document were bristling with distorted facts can’t the event mangers  invent a different story  .

In the wake of demonetization  in key state assembly elections , he could easily win and  the suffering caused  to the people did not stand in the way from winning the elections , but  close on the heels of  RBI revelation that  99.3 % of demonetized notes returned to bank and the deepening employment crisis  must act as entry barriers for the second term .To what extent  the drastic measure of Demonetization  which we prefer to call as political thunderbolt   will impact 2019 election is a moot point ; it may or may not  be an election issue .I am not sure to what extent the affected  people remember  and recollect  the  loss of life and job , decline in growth and income  under the combined onslaught of  both demo and GST which virtually choked  the aggregate demand , and pushed the economy into a tailspin of recession.?

 Will the affected ones   remember  and recollect  the  loss of life and job , decline in growth and income .And whether  the collective memory convert  itself into  votes,against Modi, there is no guarantee. I must hasten to add  that Post- demonetization,  election in five assemblies  did not reveal any backlash to this populist measure which actually  caused real suffering to the informal economy and poor .? How will the poor dalit and middle class behave?will the trading and business community  which was most hit by the twin onslaught of demo and GST switch their loyalty  and help the congress or a variant of Third front ?what is happening to  core vote bank of BJP vote now ? what about the majority of the poor who  were  economically disabled  and the religious minorities ?

--on the other hand if there is a mass hysteria like post emergency  kind of  feeling and opposition combine , the common man  will be politically enabled to dethrone the Rama or Asoka  kind of ruler –the  56’’ chest tall leader who has thrived well on lies and more lies .will they work now ? I am not a an expert and astrologer and predicting the outcome of election is as difficult as judging a cricket match; till last ball is bowled one cannot say .In any case The PM has luck and many educated still believe him.That is the worst part of the narrative on the arrogant Paradoxical prime minister 

The divided ,spineless,and directionless opposition will make chowikidar Modi to get second innings

There is an encouraging news that the rupee has appreciated against the major currencies, and the official inflation figures are good .The news of the arrest of Nirav Modi done close on the heels of the election process looks like a well scripted drama and the greatness of the modern chowkidar in new India is that everything under the sun will be better exploited for getting the second innings .

Kindly remember Vijay mallaya is still safe there and this fellow also knows how to prolong the case and also prevent the home coming ?The PM need not labour much .True he will be scared by  the quantum of anger and resentment  stemming from the right thinking Indians and he is not worried much as alliance arithmetic will help sail the turbulent political waters.

  The greatest advantage for the first chowkidar of the country is that the opposition remains more divided and  the congress is treated as the unwanted baggage in some states  and that will turn out to be a great advantage  for the BJP’s bandwagon. More importantly the opposition is not truly united in a concerted way   and many regional parties are scattered and there is no common bond to unite except the agenda  to oust BJP .

Despite Modi  giving ample opportunities to the opposition right from his  launch of the draconian measure of demonetization ,later fused with GST at savage rates at one stage followed by defense scandal and war hysteria hyped up to win the election and so on,the opposition has not capitalized his mistakes and collared him .There is so much of mutual distrust among the opposition and in a three cornered or sometimes four cornered tests BJP stands to gain .Under normal circumstance for the suffering he caused to the people and the economy at large he must be unseated from power  but it is very easily said than done  

The northern region gave more votes in 2014 .Given the great diversity in geography  and Hindi heartland enjoying a privileged treatment under Modi’s regime  now ,North- south polarization shall be expected .In any case the south had always remained from the Modi wave for long and had not shown any inclination towards BJP,and its  brand of  Hindutava religion based politics .Now there is no wave in favour of PM.with the exception of a the blind supporters  and loyalists to the party , there is more hate ,anger and resentment against him ,especially in the south.The media manufactured stories of thumping majority will remain as stories .and yet in the absence of unity among the opposition ,he has a competitive edge .

 Old Allies have left and new ones have joined and in a few cases they have been pressurized and intimidated to join . With the exit of some friends out of NDA, and a plausible fear that there might be erosion in vote in a few northern and north eastern states ,new strategy of  political alliance has been struck in the south and the fond hope is that the takeover of AIADMK, will help get a few seats and that will be a bonus and cushion  .Indeed the exercise started, long before , once the traditional allies parted company .

As many party leaders have been trapped in cobweb of mega corruption , the ruling BJP having the command over the investigating agencies ,intimidated a few potential parties to strike alliance. In TN it is more visible while in other regions it is more subtle .It is more like  take over in the language of corporate and it is hoped that political joint venture might give some conjectural advantage in the south.  To what extent YSR and other regional outfits will augment votes and lift the spirit of BJP is not clear

All the experts say about the significant role of  the alliance arithmetic numbers, and of course the money and muscle powers .But  the grass root workers, if they have anger against Modi will not bother to vote  .The  touring PM in the last 4 years plus did not bother to share  the grief over many natural calamities, but made 4 trips in the recent months even while the border was bristling with war tensions and that speaks of  the nervousness and craziness to get some seats and also hypocrisy  in a region where the party is virtually nonexistent