Thursday, July 30, 2020

what's happening to world money now?

The title given above has been my self financed project for more than a decade and that has been in a state of suspended animation.In my PhD thesis I had addressed this question way back in the early 90's.
Despite the progressive decline in America's economic strength the U.S dollar continued to play the role of the major key currency as there was no effective alternative for it as Richard N Cooper had pointed out many decades ago .
The brain child of Nobel Laureate professor R A Mundell Euro which was supposed to dethrone the dollar had its own existential dilemma ever since its birth and the European debt crisis exposed the vulnerability of the monetary union of Europe without being a fiscal union and absence of lender of the last resort to help the afflicted nations.
They are now part of history..Close on the heels of the corana virus and the indifference shown by the Trump administration is now the immediate cause for the loss of confidence  on the dollar.Against it's major trading partners currency the US dollar has plunged and it's also being captured by the phenomenal rise in the price of gold,viz.2000 U S dollars an ounce of gold which was just 34 dollars in 1934 when the dollar was devalued from its previous level of 28 dollars.

The prime villain of the piece is of course the gross mismanagement of the economy by Trump .The economic decline is much revealed through a massive rise in fiscal deficit and escalation in unemployment and the traditional safe haven hypothesis which lured the investors is now missing.The confrontation with China has  its share too.It has been making efforts to de dollarize their tade relations and they have alrady begun the process  to reduce the dollar mountain on which that have been sitting.
It appears that the post covid economics constrains and contains the role of the dollar as a key currency..
As the response to the disease a massive tax cuts and government expenditure has contributed to escalation in deficit and there's reason to believe that in the near term the deficit  will be close to 20% of the GDP of America.
To me as a student of international finance it's clear that the days of dollar are being numbered now and the US must measure its steps.But the facts are contraary to what wish.

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