Thursday, July 30, 2020

will the US have the exorbitant privilege of printing dollar and have it supported by the Aisan central banks and foreign investors ?

In my post entitled what's happening to world money  I made a reference to rising fiscal deficit and declining US economy and let me continue the story of the inevitable but slow death of dollar.
The corana virus has only compounded the economic chaos engendered by Trump administration in the recent times .
The fall in the value of dollar is now the natural consequence of ultra cheap money policy pursued in response to the pandemic crisis and the consequent fall in the yield of the Treasury bonds and securities.when combined with the data that the cumulative fiscal deterioration over decades has made the public debt to touch 100% relative to the GDP.
All these have  rekindled the fear that the US will not be a safe haven under the present circumstances.The Expectation is that given the precarious fiscal and interest rate at zero level, the cheap money policy and explosion in liquidity will become the reality, unmindful of the inflatinary consequence.
Any country accumulating debt will attempt to deflate away its value by debasing it and that's what the US is doing now.This is nothing but Mundell's Law which I have coined in my thesis.
Kindly recall that post 2008 crisis the quantitative easing pumped more money and easy monetary policy solved the problem.After initial capital outflow, the US could attract more nervous capital from other counties.But now the case is different..No longer the interest rate configuration and the plausible rise in dollar appreciation in future is there to undertake carry foward trade and bring money to the US.capital is going out.without controlling virus and frittering away the gloabal leadership Trump can't use the exorbitant privilege  of benign neglect on the fiscal front.

This is not to suggest that  the dollar will lose  its weight as reserve currency overnight  as more than 60%  of world foreign exchange reserves is still in the form of dollar and china's yuan is just 2%.So China's move to decouple will not have any instantaneous magic..


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