Ruminating on cashless economy under the weight of demonetization

Why dreaming cash less economy is a utopian idea ? Is India prepared for a full fledged digital econmy ? Is cashless economy the right objective ? With cashless transactions accounting to just 2 per cent, dreaming of cash-less economy is little better than nonsense Despite the rise in smart phone and internet access, by global standard, the penetration is less. Despite the rise in the level of literacy, India is still home to the largest population of illiterate adults in the world .The Huge percentage of uneducated population is also very high .Digital transactions are both risky and also costly . A massive security breach of 32 lakh debit cards, just months before demonetization was reported and that speaks of the security of digital payments. At a time when banking facilities are miles away from your house especially when you happen to live in remote, hilly regions where the nearest bank facility is easily 50-60 km away in the plains and there is no guarantee of receiving money even if one covers that distance what is the fun in advocating the role of machines ? To talk of a cashless economy in a country where the banking net work does not cover more than 30 % of population and the internet connectivity is also limited and the formal credit has consistently failed the rural people and hence dependent on the money lender is sheer supreme economic nonsense to talk in Milton Friedman language Is cashless economy the priority area? Why are the right priorities of the people , not understood Does any one talk about other indicators of health education sanitation social security and job prospects and compare with other countries ? This is a land of poverty and escalating inequality..No safe drinking water facility exists there is no water management at all .Not only the States but also the centre does politics over river water sharing and the corporate and politicians make money out of it. once the water is bottled and the nature’s bounty is for sale and the pipe line is replaced by diesel driven lorries water politics has become very real and it has emerged as the fountain head of corruption..All these generate black money; every one is aware of this. First we shall give basic education, and make a sincere attempt towards inclusive growth as also inclusive banking and make digital transaction free from cyber crime. Other things will automatically follow . ---

Demonetization and RBI :The central bank was helpless

Role of RBI .reputation gone , credibility lost and the institution undermined Became a scapegoat for all the failure and stupidity of the government It was clear that the RBI was forced to accept this measure and it was a one man show all along. Virtually it surrendered before the government for their political expediency and also exposed its incompetence in so many ways in handling this issue of note ban right from the start .The credibility and the autonomy of the Central bank was undermined; failure of the measure was evident by the frequent flip flops in rules and regulations so many times and RBI became the laughing stock. Those who remained patient and had chosen to exchange their old notes at their convenience anytime before December 30 were questioned and put to inconvenience The whole exercise undertaken ,in unwarranted fashion and inadequate preparation has exposed the shallowness and crookedness of the administrative machinery symbolized by PM and it was unfortunate that the RBI became the scapegoat and got fully exposed .Finding practical/ pragmatic ways to relieve the distress of the people was next to impossibility ” as it was humanly impossible .

Democracy at the cross road;common man has vote but he cannot realize its true value as the credible leader is scarcely available who will not dance to the greedy corporates

For long the congress had monopoly power over the centre as there was no viable and credible opposition..BJP wants to get into that type of situation and desires that it should not be questioned by any one as it is the only party free from corruption and all others are tainted and rascalised criminals. The utterances of this kind would irritate any one ,sane and right thinking Indian and they appear idiotic and also ridiculous given the anger and uneasiness with the five year rule of Modi .Any good leader will like a healthy opposition and that is the hall mark of democracy .here is a party and the leader to whom it has been mortgaged albeit temporarily, wants to run an authoritarian government treating people like a cattle , sorry ,the cow has more protection than human and separate ministry has been formed . Voices of dissent are suppressed, constitution is undermined and all instuitions are saffronised and back door rule runs in TN.It is to find its feet in the south and desires multi cornered contests where the splintered opposition without any ideological unity or a common consensus for leadership will cut each others’ throat . The opposition is divided and even a resurgence of congress in a few places will be music to the ruling BJP, as that will effectively divide the vote of dissent and help BJP. The arrogance of BJP stems from this disarray in opposition and its capacity to buy and arrange for opportunistic marriage with parties whose behavior will make the age old institution of prostitution look more credible and better . Even those who do not subscribe to Modi do not hesitate to join if there is a better price . This is how election arithmetic has operated and the event managers are faithfully exploring all the possibilities to exploit the brand names in politics .To what extent the volunteer at the bottom will vote even while leaders who were at loggerheads until recently come together for a honey moon now at the time of election The interesting thing is about the electoral politics is that there is no clean leadership and people have to choose between the tainted groups .That is why, the discredited Modi factor(after demonetization and record unemployment )as also the shallow and dynastic elements of congress ,are still salable commodities in the politics market which is one of the corrupt markets in the world . The new cash, the pink colored note ,handy to carry will be a much sought after paper by fellows who preach the virtues of digital transactions to ordinary people struggling for existence . There are constraints and compulsions for each party to position itself not to win but to make money and divide votes so that the big boss will have an advantage ; and various permutations and combination will be tried in each state to win by all possible means ;it will not be a cake walk for any one in 2019.In all probability it will be fought violently .I am not sure how far the demonetization factor will play a significant role in derailing the electoral chances of Modi and to what extent the type of alliance the BJP has formed will counter it .The advantage for Modi right now is that the opposition is not fully united in the true sense . There is a lot of myth and media hype built around Modi .Recently I read in some context , let me quote :Here was a “ Hindu nationalist who was for a decade an international pariah over his alleged role in the mass murder of Muslims in a region which he once administered, “and all of us know that many nations were not happy with his way of governance as a mute spectator in that massacre .He continues his agenda of hate politics and the nation is polarized on the basis of religion .Many a time I wonder how such a person , a factional leader could capture power by telling a series of lies to the gullible masses ;we can only blame the strange quirk of fate in the face of paucity of leadership. In a continental size of the country, with all diversities With very little to show and many things to hide and unemployment data reflecting jobless growth ,he will invoke the slogan of stability, opposition intent on looting the country ,uncertainty of coalition government etc. Economics is not in his favour despite appreciating rupee and stable and low official inflation rate but manipulative politics they will rely upon as they did earlier . The main make in India project is how to make money at the time of election. During demonetization times many crooks made huge amount of money .The functioning of democracy as it is now is more flawed and it will not represent the true will of the people and many dissensions and divisions among various groups create a fertile atmosphere to switch sides ;eventually everything is boiled down to get the best price in the electoral market .Since each vote counts, the pressure groups and lobbies are active and these intermediaries will stand to gain and open the outlet for black money which is freely paraded and what the EC will catch is only a tiny fraction of total black money put into circulation .The common man has the power to tilt the equation .but alas,he does not have any credible leader to look forward to,and there are too many prime ministerial candidates and invariably most of the candidates are of dubious and doubtful distinction ,carrying the cross of family name, or caste or religion tag .. I have stopped watching TV and to that extent I am freed from sight and sound pollution..Whom so ever comes , the nation is not going to make any dramatic turn around and if the people are allowed to carry their work on the farm and small units and related economic activities from political goondas and varied oppressive machinery of the government ,that will be a great service .The corporate centric and anti people government cannot be expected to do something good at a fundamental level to alleviate their suffering .

will Modi get one more term ?Is there any residual role for Note ban to hit him at the time of election ?

Will Modi get one more term ? if India had been a matured democracy,with sufficient economic literacy and political maturity ,it is easy to answer and say he will be shown the door .But under the confused and media orchestered and corporate engineered hype , and also the opposition not fielding a common candidate ,the chances are that the advantage is with the gentleman who calls himself as the first chowkidar,exploiting all kinds of mean mentality and now he is equating with patriotism. Can a chowkidar seen in the company of bad ,say sharing dais with the corrupt gentleman who had gone to prison and also striking alliance with the corrupt elements to the core ,to exploit the political vacuum left by a lady who herself was also an embodiment of mega corruption ,but ruled like a lioness and could become CM despite going to jail be considered as the crusader of corruption and champion of development ?The democracy in India has gone too bad like a rotten egg which is also in demand just because there is no alternative to eat. Having done more mischief and wounded the finer sensibilities of many, ordinary people he has thrown some doles –the official currency corruption on the eve of election ?He is the same person,who ,ignored the farmers’’ plight, virtually killed the economy by note ban and hastily implementedGST,this chowkidar has suddenly remembered election time and seeks blessings to continue his task of propagating hate politics ,the divisive and destructive politics ,saffronising everything under the sun forgetting that India is a vastly diverse and inherently a complex countryand can never be allowed to be shaped in the images of chowkidars namely the distorted Hindutuva India. As the last three assembly elections had thrown open some surprise if key states retaliate with reasoned and well balanced mindset their arrogance will be humbled . Virtually there is nothing substantial to show as achievements .That is why this rhetoric of chowkidar and Nehru bashing and Raghul teasing .Last time the Hindi heart land showered boon and the alliance arithmetic also helped .with the divided opposition, congress almost reduced to a regional party in select states, but not willing to acknowledge it and a few treating it as unwanted luggage , BJP in power has an advantage , but there are many ifs and buts and pendulum can change any way when the D date nears; it will be one of the violent elections ever fought. Will chaos theory be at work ? The only hope for those who do not want to give a second innings lies in the butterfly effect of demo; will people remember at the time of voting ?True ,among the success lists he does not want to make any reference to demo but they will justify it by statistics and a series of lies .When Economic survey and budgeatary document were bristling with distorted facts can’t the event mangers invent a different story . In the wake of demonetization in key state assembly elections , he could easily win and the suffering caused to the people did not stand in the way from winning the elections , but close on the heels of RBI revelation that 99.3 % of demonetized notes returned t bank and the deepening employment crisis must act as entry barriers for the second term .To what extent the drastic measure of Demonetization which we prefer to call as political thunderbolt will impact 2019 election is a moot point ; it may or may not be an election issue .I am not sure to what extent the affected people remember and recollect the loss of life and job , decline in growth and income under the combined onslaught of both demo and GST which virtually choked the aggregate demand , and pushed the economy into a tailspin of recession.? By now Mr Modi must have realized that his unilateral political adventure namely demonetization with a sp ecific political agenda to paralyse the opposition and freeze the party fund read electoral transaction demand for money , though helpful initially, has proved to be political disaster and a kind of suicide, as none of the objectives he mentioned on that fateful day night has been realized and 99.3 % of the demonetized notes has returned ; the fake money component of black money no one talks about now ; the counterfeit new notes have appeared demonstrating that in any currency rearrangement, , this kind of money will continue to emerge unless and until security features are tightened and the administration show the demonstrable evidence of credibility, honesty and integrity to checkmate. Will the affected ones remember and recollect the loss of life and job , decline in growth and income And whether the collective memory convert itself into votes,against Modi, there is no guarantee. I must hasten to add that Post- demonetization, election in five assemblies did not reveal any backlash to this populist measure which actually caused real suffering to the informal economy and poor .? How will the poor dalit and middle class behave?will the trading and business community which was most hit by the twin onslaught of demo and GST switch their loyalty and help the congress or a variant of Third front ?what is happening to core vote bank of BJP vote now ? what about the majority of the poor who were economically disabled and the religious minorities ? -- .on the other hand if there is a mass hysteria like post emergency kind of feeling and opposition combine , the common man will be politically enabled to dethrone the Raja kind of ruler –the 56’’ chest tall leader who has thrived well on lies and more lies .will they work now ? I am not a an expert and astrologer and predicting the outcome of election is as difficult as judging a cricket match; till last ball is bowled one cannot say .

Shifting narratives on politics,and heightened criminalization pf politics;ordinary people are spectators

.The politicians are supposed to serve the people and promote their economic well beings .They are expected to maintain high standard of morality, dignity and decency that Anna once talked about .In 1967 election riding on the anti- Hindi agitation wave of the student community –a spontaneous overflow of emotions and close on the heels of the rise in the price of rice ,the rising sun of DMK could capture the good will of the people and C N Annadurai could win election in the pleasant company of mega alliance ably formed and assisted by Rajaji,a great statesman , and others .During those days the candidates were from ordinary segments of the society- the lesser privileged and the hard work of the party workers –the real volunteers mattered most in ensuring victory .. Contrast the current tribe of contestants cutting across the political parties .The two shades of DMK having the label of Anna can hardly boost of that kind of dedicated workers in the fray. Now the elections are corporate driven and only those who can afford to spend many crores enter into the fray Do we have good and honest politicians who will qualify this standard ?There is more violence in words and at times the MP and MLA of the same party test their muscle power on the stage before the public or party people ,beating one another with cheppal(foot wear ). More than loyalty to the party and honesty of individuals what matters most is political and criminal background and his critical capability to spend money first and then to make money. It is only those candidates who can spend 40 to 50 crores are allotted seat .will they be expected to represent people or the corporate vested interests ?The ruling party fellows live in a world of illusion or delusion that they are above the law which should bend and protect them and the enforcement agencies must obey their command . When criminals have chosen to enter the legislature to amass fortune and also protect the cumulative accumulation of black wealth and at times one in three members of parliament is facing criminal cases, what type of governance we shall expect ?It is learnt that between 2004 and 2014 the number of candidates with serious criminal charges shot up from 266 to 908 and those elected as MPs from 60 to 120..Shankar Aiyar says :Parties in their pursuit hunt for winning candidates have enabled the vertical integration of money and muscle power in the electoral market . Now a new acronym has been launched chowkidar and these fools do not know they are adding fuel to the fire and the gentleman who rode to power on lies wants to reassert with mere slogans and terminology ,the power of lies.He has lost his credibility and moral authority to talk about good governance or battling corruption .His five year rule bears testimony what a leader of the country should not do .

Chowkidar remembers the people at election time without anything to boost of his own initiative :will God conspire now also ?

Will Modi get one more term ? if India had been a matured democracy,with sufficient economic literacy and political maturity ,it is easy to answer and say :he will be shown the door .But under the confused and media orchestrated and corporate engineered hype , and also the opposition not fielding a common candidate ,the chances are that the advantage is with the gentleman who now calls himself as the first chowkidar,exploiting all kinds of mean mentality and now he is equating that term  with patriotism.How can a PM who had enjoyed the power for 5 years and lived on pure lies ,can again and again resort to cheap political stunt without being conscious that he has become a laughing stock !

Can a chowkidar seen in the company of bad ,say sharing dais with the corrupt gentleman who had gone to prison and also striking alliance with the corrupt elements to the core ,to exploit the political vacuum left by a lady who herself  was also an embodiment of mega  corruption ,but ruled like a lioness and could become CM despite going to jail  be considered as the crusader of corruption and champion of development ?The democracy in India has gone too bad like a rotten egg which is also in demand just because there is no alternative to eat.

Having done more mischief and wounded the finer sensibilities of many, especially the ordinary people  he has thrown some doles –the official currency corruption on the eve of election ?He is the same person,who ,ignored the farmers’’ plight, virtually killed the economy by note ban and hastily implemented,this chowkidar has suddenly remembered election time; he seeks blessings to continue his task of propagating hate politics ,the divisive and destructive politics ,saffronising everything under the sun forgetting that India is a vastly  diverse and inherently a  complex country and can never be allowed to be shaped in the images of chowkidars  namely  the distorted Hindutuva India. As the last three assembly elections had thrown open some surprise if key states retaliate with reasoned and well balanced mindset their arrogance will be humbled .

Virtually there is nothing substantial to show as achievements .That is why this rhetoric of chowkidar and Nehru bashing and Raghul teasing .Last time the   Hindi heart land  showered boon and the alliance arithmetic also helped .with the divided opposition, congress almost reduced to a regional party in select states, but not willing to acknowledge it  and a few treating it as unwanted luggage , BJP in power has an  advantage , but there are many ifs and buts and pendulum can change any way when the D date nears; it will be one of the violent elections  ever fought.

Will chaos theory be at work ?

The only hope for those who do not want to give  a second innings  lies in the butterfly effect of demonetization ; will people remember at the time of voting ?True ,among the success lists he does not want to make any reference  to demo but they will justify it by statistics and a series of lies .When Economic survey and budgetary document were bristling with distorted facts can’t the event mangers  invent a different story  .

In the wake of demonetization  in key state assembly elections , he could easily win and  the suffering caused  to the people did not stand in the way from winning the elections , but  close on the heels of  RBI revelation that  99.3 % of demonetized notes returned to bank and the deepening employment crisis  must act as entry barriers for the second term .To what extent  the drastic measure of Demonetization  which we prefer to call as political thunderbolt   will impact 2019 election is a moot point ; it may or may not  be an election issue .I am not sure to what extent the affected  people remember  and recollect  the  loss of life and job , decline in growth and income  under the combined onslaught of  both demo and GST which virtually choked  the aggregate demand , and pushed the economy into a tailspin of recession.?

 Will the affected ones   remember  and recollect  the  loss of life and job , decline in growth and income .And whether  the collective memory convert  itself into  votes,against Modi, there is no guarantee. I must hasten to add  that Post- demonetization,  election in five assemblies  did not reveal any backlash to this populist measure which actually  caused real suffering to the informal economy and poor .? How will the poor dalit and middle class behave?will the trading and business community  which was most hit by the twin onslaught of demo and GST switch their loyalty  and help the congress or a variant of Third front ?what is happening to  core vote bank of BJP vote now ? what about the majority of the poor who  were  economically disabled  and the religious minorities ?

--on the other hand if there is a mass hysteria like post emergency  kind of  feeling and opposition combine , the common man  will be politically enabled to dethrone the Rama or Asoka  kind of ruler –the  56’’ chest tall leader who has thrived well on lies and more lies .will they work now ? I am not a an expert and astrologer and predicting the outcome of election is as difficult as judging a cricket match; till last ball is bowled one cannot say .In any case The PM has luck and many educated still believe him.That is the worst part of the narrative on the arrogant Paradoxical prime minister 

The divided ,spineless,and directionless opposition will make chowikidar Modi to get second innings

There is an encouraging news that the rupee has appreciated against the major currencies, and the official inflation figures are good .The news of the arrest of Nirav Modi done close on the heels of the election process looks like a well scripted drama and the greatness of the modern chowkidar in new India is that everything under the sun will be better exploited for getting the second innings .

Kindly remember Vijay mallaya is still safe there and this fellow also knows how to prolong the case and also prevent the home coming ?The PM need not labour much .True he will be scared by  the quantum of anger and resentment  stemming from the right thinking Indians and he is not worried much as alliance arithmetic will help sail the turbulent political waters.

  The greatest advantage for the first chowkidar of the country is that the opposition remains more divided and  the congress is treated as the unwanted baggage in some states  and that will turn out to be a great advantage  for the BJP’s bandwagon. More importantly the opposition is not truly united in a concerted way   and many regional parties are scattered and there is no common bond to unite except the agenda  to oust BJP .

Despite Modi  giving ample opportunities to the opposition right from his  launch of the draconian measure of demonetization ,later fused with GST at savage rates at one stage followed by defense scandal and war hysteria hyped up to win the election and so on,the opposition has not capitalized his mistakes and collared him .There is so much of mutual distrust among the opposition and in a three cornered or sometimes four cornered tests BJP stands to gain .Under normal circumstance for the suffering he caused to the people and the economy at large he must be unseated from power  but it is very easily said than done  

The northern region gave more votes in 2014 .Given the great diversity in geography  and Hindi heartland enjoying a privileged treatment under Modi’s regime  now ,North- south polarization shall be expected .In any case the south had always remained from the Modi wave for long and had not shown any inclination towards BJP,and its  brand of  Hindutava religion based politics .Now there is no wave in favour of PM.with the exception of a the blind supporters  and loyalists to the party , there is more hate ,anger and resentment against him ,especially in the south.The media manufactured stories of thumping majority will remain as stories .and yet in the absence of unity among the opposition ,he has a competitive edge .

 Old Allies have left and new ones have joined and in a few cases they have been pressurized and intimidated to join . With the exit of some friends out of NDA, and a plausible fear that there might be erosion in vote in a few northern and north eastern states ,new strategy of  political alliance has been struck in the south and the fond hope is that the takeover of AIADMK, will help get a few seats and that will be a bonus and cushion  .Indeed the exercise started, long before , once the traditional allies parted company .

As many party leaders have been trapped in cobweb of mega corruption , the ruling BJP having the command over the investigating agencies ,intimidated a few potential parties to strike alliance. In TN it is more visible while in other regions it is more subtle .It is more like  take over in the language of corporate and it is hoped that political joint venture might give some conjectural advantage in the south.  To what extent YSR and other regional outfits will augment votes and lift the spirit of BJP is not clear

All the experts say about the significant role of  the alliance arithmetic numbers, and of course the money and muscle powers .But  the grass root workers, if they have anger against Modi will not bother to vote  .The  touring PM in the last 4 years plus did not bother to share  the grief over many natural calamities, but made 4 trips in the recent months even while the border was bristling with war tensions and that speaks of  the nervousness and craziness to get some seats and also hypocrisy  in a region where the party is virtually nonexistent

why 2000 rupee note, when the objective is to reduce the higher denomination currency?

Q; If the aim of demonetizaton is to reduce the size of cash economy and contain thee higher denomination currency of 500 and 1000, why the hell 2000 note was introduced ?Sam ,Why 2000 rupee note then ? Is it not idiotic and irrational?

Out of 16 or 17 lakh crores plus money in circulation13.5 lakhs were in the denomination of 500 and1000.It is unfortunate that only in our country higher denomination notes constituted a larger proportion nearly 87% of total money supply. While launching demo the intention must have been to reduce the higher denomination component but instead 2000 rupee note was put into circulation to replace the old 500 and 1000 .

Along with you , friends it is time we asked the  following few questions ; if that is the case why the hell the government thought it fit to introduce 2000 note as the replacement currency ? To give  more fillip to the politician suit case demand for money and facilitate more corruption  and generate more black money as it is easy to store and carry ?Is it  the  currency reform and  can it be called  a regime change for unearthing black money ? How is it that even when the new currency was introduced many boxes and bundles of them could be retrieved by the raids ? Did the culprits responsible for transmitting this cash to  be passed on to the crooks  found out and punished ?How did the counterfeit currencies  emerge quickly  defying the chips and other security features  contained in the new notes ?!I have read from Dr C Rangarajan that the  note had  more security features.Was it really true ?

Currency component of black money was hardly touched and the emergence of fake notes could not be prevented; people with and without bank accounts could not claim their hard earned money , but the crooks were sitting on the cash – the new money .The bankers were sitting on the mountain of cash (deposits) but they could not (did not want to ) lend .In a few cases there was no credit demand . This acute cash and credit crunch choked demand, reduced the consumption and investment expenditure, and thus injected the recessionary tendencies .

Now at the election time ,you see the power of black money in oiling the wheels of the electoral process .suppose imagine there is no cash at all ;November Modi india /How will the candidates win election and spend..everything will be digital..;there will be transparency …all politicians will sulk and suffer..

Thank god ,old notes have been converted into new and all the political parties are happy ,cash has returned , sorry black money has become king  and returned with a bang ,as Keynes has returned after the global financial crisis.

Prof D sam will you explain how 2016 is demonetization experiment different from that of earlier episodes ?

Q :Sir Was demonetization  administered earlier ?

Did it cause any problem to the general public ?

D Sam :It was administered in 1946 and 1978 and on both occasions  the demonetization of  higher denomination notes  was not a problem as it was not much in circulation and held by the affluent and its percentage in total money supply was limited .

Kindly remember this denomination constituted a tiny fraction - just 1,3%  of total money supply(as compared to 86% of money supply in 2016); and even many educated and middle class people would not have seen that note..Even a serious student like me hazily remember that episode itself  as it was not all an event for the majority of the population .I was doing M Phil in Pune gokhale Institute at that time …But the case in 2016 is distinctly different..It was an arrogant and stupid measure undertaken, unmindful of the calamity which would visit a larger population especially when you operate with empty hands while receiving the torrential pouring of cash into banks like flash flood

 Just  imagine  the devastating effects of this measure  on informal economy, construction and farmers and so on  with shortage of liquidity choking the economy. Given the data that there are 1,34000 bank branches and  more than  2 lakhs ATMs ,  If on an average 500 people stand in each bank imagine  how much human resources would have been lost , asked P Chidambaram..He may not be the right person now to ask this question as serious charges are leveled against his credentials and track record in money making madness.I do not have any respect for him .

Dr Manmohan  was absolutely right in saying that it was a monumental management failure, an organized loot and a legalized plunder. He may not have the moral right to say as the congress government  he presided over fell on the weight of corruption charges but still  the right person  to  ask this question ,say backed by his administrative experience  and economic insight to say and argue that certainly it is not the right measure or an ideal instrument to tackle the problem.

 Especially when it is undertaken in isolation without any solid package of measures to strike at benami holding of real estate and billions of dollar worth gold and foreign money ..the non currency components  of black wealth /corruption is substantial  and it is growing ..It is like a hydra headed monster and there is a fertile climate in the country  for its growth .The pity is  that recently the Finance Minister has made a revelation that not all the  money deposited in Swiss banks is black money.

when will Modi learn the political nature of Kashmir problem and understand why militancy has been on the rise under his regime .what happened to your conciliatory policy towards Kashmir earlier

This brief note is to draw attention that to what extent Modi's intention to take away the special status and privileges  which guarantee Kashmir autonomy through,Article 370 and its cousin 35-A.It is clear that Modi believes in repression and intimidation in a few cases to run India as if the people are fools .Given the current clout Of P Chidambaram,he may not be the right person to quote and yet while commenting on the in the number of local recruits the  former union congress minister questioned the muscular, militarists and maximalist approach,in dealing with Kashmir.
In a recent article in Deccan Herold,A G Noorani has made a pertinent observation that repression is not a solution to kashmir problem.
I quote:"History demonstrates that no fighting that has roots in the people's sentiments  can be extinguished by brute force.That is what Modi wants to do.He is certain to fail" 

Musing on election 2019:the choice is between the devil and deep sea ;Fractured opposition will favour Modi in select pockets

As the least politicized individual and with all my love for the country, I do not have any regard for the current tribe of most of the  politicians cutting across all political parties .They are the problems rather than solution ;most of us love our country but we do not like our leaders as most of them are not difficult to dislike.. And yet democracy keeps them alive and kicking and people do choose between the devil and deep sea one election after another election. There is just no other alternative

Election in India is more like a festival or watching cricket match and money and muscle power largely determine  besides caste equations  and the apathy of the middle class in not voting ..If this indifference prevails and the opposition votes are  fragmented and split ,  Modi  will have an effortless  second innings which he does not deserve  not with a thumping majority but get sufficient number of seats ;in case there is deficiency ,that will be adjusted in the post realignment of groups  .on the other hand if there is a mass hysteria like post- emergency  kind of situation(1975)  the common man can easily bring down  the 56’’ chest tall leader who has thrived well on lies and more lies..Will it work now ?

Under normal circumstances the note ban alone must unseat him but alas here Indian democracy is different and shaped by the money power and whims of the  vested interests of corporate power. People know that demonetization virtually put the brake on jobs, income and growth, thereby  immiserizing  the poor and dislocating the migrants , and also making many others to lose life  .

Election is a function of many variables and it is very difficult to delineate the adverse effect of  the great  exogenous  disturbance  on the well functioning  and  fastest growing economy..The greatest tragedy of this country is that elections are not won on the basis of economic issues alone .Multi cornered contests split the opposition votes  and each region exhibits its own battle lines depending upon the leaders  and their  egos  and  electoral calculations about alliance arithmetic .The saddest irony is even those who do not subscribe to  the ideology  of the ruling  party  will be keen to strike alliance , proving thereby that  they are  for sale  for a higher fee .sometimes it might  help the ruling party to win or spilit votes The Marxists where they are strong  have not roped in congress with the exception of TN where DMK has called the shot and they are together .In Delhi the congress must have joined with the ruling party there but they did not .All these will profit BJP

Shifting Narratives on the goals of demonetization,a clear proof,it was fundamentally flawed ...

When demonetization was imposed like the financial emergency , in 2016 the author and the architect thundered that the primary aim was to stamp out the cult of black money and root out corruption .we were also told that  it will help check the terror funding by eliminating counterfeit notes and also usher in a digital economy from cash economy .what has happened to those objectives ?Did note ban eliminate black money and tackle corruption ?

Those who were  rooted in Marxist and Keynesian traditions and those who also know how capitalism functions ,were  skeptical of the measure and within a few days of its launch started recording their contrary opinion that it will be a spectacular failure and cause a collateral damage to the economy .

It is now history that how it impacted the people – the varied segments of the economy from farmers to traders,from migrant labour to all informal economy and all those who did not have any secured employment .The confiscation of cash from the ordinary ,and leaving the black money in tact with the crooks ,- albeit in the new pink coloured notes ,was the most cruel act in the recent history .The meanest part of the drama was to invoke nationalism to cajole the affected to bear short term pain for long term gain.This effective fooling ,going on giving false hopes , to cover up one’s own inadequacy was the height of the shallowness and crookedness of the measure .

This discourse on demonetization underwent multiple narratives as the prospects of unearthing black money became a remote possibility. Authorities defended by saying that it was not meant for weeding out the black money .Once the fake notes started appearing ,they did not want to talk about tackling  the terror money funding as the important objectives .when the digital transactions had their own peculiar problems like cyber crime and many fraudulent episodes came to light ,they said the target was not cashless economy but instead less cash economy .once it was pointed out that the cash in circulation in 2017-18 was more than what it was before 2016-demonetization period,the narrative changed .The FM came with a new theory that actually the objective was to transform the non tax complaint country into the tax complaint nation and from that perspectives  the objective of note ban has been achieved ..what is indefensible ,they have defended ;what is irrational and idiotic they have treated in the name of rationality .

  Not only that the fond hope that at least three to four lakks crores worth 500 and 1000 rupee notes would not return and to that extent the liabilities of RBI will be extinguished and that will accrue as dividends to the federal government which will help solve the fiscal deficit .

Even while it was clear that the measure was a failure ,the  supports   glorified it  and critics denounced  and demonized it.  It is now current history that under the combined onslaught of  both demo and GST which virtually choked  the aggregate demand  was virtually choked and the economy pushed into a tailspin of recession affecting  people.

will God Help PM and conspire to give one more innings ?

Demonetization was one of the greatest exogenous disturbances which shocked and surprised the nation and also the world .After the initial euphoria, and praise , the scene changed . Sensing that his foolish measure ,was causing maximum inconvenience and the arrival of ew notes were taking time,and virtually there was no viable solution in sight PM Modi appealed to the people :

Give me 50 days time to restore the normalcy I will catch the black money ,bear short term pain  for long term pain .Like  soldiers in the army front ,you show your solidarity and stand by me .

Did he tell the truth?No Even if Nasik press worked non stop it would take months to print ythat massive amount which was printed over a period of 15 years .

Again he fooled them by saying that the black money holders became jittery and nervous and they will lose sleep.what a cruel way of wounding the finer sensibilities of the ordinary people who had surrendered their life time wealth held in cash..

It was obvious and apparent that it is only the poor who lost the sleep and not the crooks .Again it is the poor who stood in the serpentine queue and a few of them lost their life .The pain was not short term but persisted for long and eventually proved to be lasting pain.The daily wage earners and those who worked in small  and medium enterprises ,lost their  job and income ,due to acute cash and credit crunch.

The supreme court feared revolt and riots and blasted the government for unleashing this measure without adequate preparation .

RBI could not make the PM to listen to reason .The FM  also proved to be  a very insensitive man and a great disaster.Former BJP leader  termed this measure as an unmitigated disaster .

Once the RBI let the cat out of the bag  that 99.3 %  of the demonetized notes were returned, the narratives on demo has changed  and the FM came with a new explanation that the objective was not properly understood by the critics ;it was basically meant for transforming the largely non tax compliant country into the tax compliant nation and also make the nation cashless….yes the ordinary masses became cashless, jobless, and the economy became growth less and poor are clueless when the leader will announce the names of the offenders keeping huge fortune in Swiss banks .The stated objectives were hardly realized and  for the economic sin he committed ,will people remove him from the seat or the supreme will conspire to help him; it will be known in a matter of few months .

.

Admirers want Modi to come back, the critics and those who have suffered say, sir enough is enough, thank you we bless you for a healthy life

Modi is an avatar of God and he will do no wrong ?!

Those who have an enormous love, respects and regards for PM Modi want him back as PM once again to complete the unfinished agenda of controlling black money( ? ) and root out terrorism once and for all !.They pray for his second innings and we also wish him good luck. For these tribe, well educated and well settled in life  who do not know the colour of poverty and the shade of deprivation ,lack of growth, employment crisis, social and communal tensions are not a matter of concern at all or any  significance .

In terms of design implementation and management  how note ban  was a disaster they will never understand as their blind faith and belief in the leader will not allow .more importantly this motley group do not have basic economics .

At the other extreme, there are youngsters, inclusive of the new brigade for 2019 election ,and the affected small traders, farmers, trials and dalits and so on ,-they are frustratingly irritated with the style of functioning and the content of governance ,his betrayal, false promises and  cumulative lies,on the issue of black money and also terror money, not to speak of the series of inimical  incidents that took place under his regime ,disturbing social and communal peace, triggering fear psychosis  would say :Go back Sir ,enough is enough .

The  anger and resentment right from demonetization and GST to other issues still linger in their mind as unforgivable acts . The former measure namely note ban was undoubtedly an irrational one –largely self inflicted as it was ill conceived and wrongly timed and also carried forward without proper home work. The latter, the goods and service Tax was an ongoing project- conceived by the previous regime but questioned by great Modi , when he was CM of a state then, but fondly embracing it in  his new role as PM of the country and also hastily implementing it  at  savage rates unmindful of its deleterious  impact on the people or economy  without listening to the opposition.

  

The cocktails of the twins, killed jobs, dislocated business and people ,derailed growth and virtually pushed the world’s fastest growing economy into the slowest one at that time.To my knowledge

This is the first case study in the entire economic history how one man’s folly and misplaced ego ,pushed the well behaved and  dynamic economy into a tailspin of recession unnecessarily and unilaterally .

Thus far, our honourable PM did not express any regret for the damage caused .This is the worst financial terrorism or tsunami of the highest order .

The root cause is the centralization of political and economic power at his feet without any check and balance to discipline him and make him walk on  the road, useful to the economy and the people at large .They do not want 8 lane high way  but a usable road which will give them meaningful job and if a tea vendor  turned out PM could not offer who else can do it ?

Small wonder then ,his famous slogan then ,”minimum government and maximum governance “ remains as slogan even now ; and in his political dictionary  Modi means powerful God and he will do wrong and therefore no one should ever attempt to pin point his omission and commission.

For the leader and the people who have suffered under him, the billion dollar question is now or never ? should he be unseated from power or allowed to continue for another five years to alter the idea of India completely  in his own image

 Or Will he change for the better become humble and really do something for the nation as a whole  when he get the second innings ?His well wishers are confident .we also wish him good luck..when there is no enemy on the distant horizon as he used to say earlier, seems to be true now when there is no united opposition to take over him and fight .  

Demystifying the economics of demonetization :excerpts from child's guide

Before 2014 election 2014 Modi, promised growth , jobs and liquidity. He accused of Manmohan’s government for its jobless growth and mega corruption; so the election was fought on the theme of eradicating corruption..He thundered with his 56’’ chest ,in case he was elected to power  within 100 days he will bring the black money and deposit 15 lakhs in each individual bank account.All of us know what had  happened  in the last five years .His critical inability to unearth the black money and the compulsion to face the assembly elections in five states in the mid course of his political journey ,propelled him  ,to take another false step in the form of note ban to divert and distract attention.This he did despite the advice in well informed educated circle who know the subject that note ban was no solution to tackle black money .It was another irrational measure done in the name of rationality and sincerity that here is a person  who is bold enough  to collar the culprit ,and mop up the black money and distribute it  to the poor !

Did he deliver 2 crores job ? was there any meaningful growth ?Do the economic survey and the interim budget really tell the truth ? why there was no transfer ency and hesitancy leading to the resignation of  straight forward people leaving the organisational structure ?  in releasing the employment data? Unemployment is 45 years low and economic growth is five years low !

what has happened to his election eve speech to bring swiss black money ?when will 15 lakhs amount be deposited in bank of each individual' account ?

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was the war against black money in 2016 ,notional or real? was it a surgical strike against the black money holders ?or a massive carpet bombing against poor and lesser privileged ? Did any rich man stand in the queue or accidentally die?   

 
  The depressing reality, the crude reality is that ,Growth has faltered not because there was something wrong with the economy in 2016  but because it was derailed by a stupid measure called demonetization which created  a serous cash and credit crunch leading to fall in aggregate demand and a rise  in unintended inventories ,fall in  investment along with the fall in consumption.This resulted in declining  ,jobs  and later virtual  disappearance of jobs;, and liquidity was sucked in for long and the banks flooded with cash could not lend for varied reasons ; this is how the recessionary tendencies got generated and enveloped the economy and intensified the employment crisis which  had been worse earlier .. .

scent of flowers making love with song of birds...I am romancing with my subject

Recent revelations  by RBI that  demonetization was not done to unearth the black money ,weed out the fake notes and tame the counterfeits stemming from the border .It has also made it  very clear the non currency component of black money is very high and held in the form of gold and real estate and demonetization can hardly affect it .And yet the the architect and the author of the drama our PM fooled the people on that day fateful day that it will stamp out the cult of black money and corruption and the holders of black money will lose sleep.

RBI was not in favour of the decision .Since the authorities had taken a decision unilaterally despite the fact the discussion was going on for six months before taking the decision,RBI yielded and said it was being done to replace or reduce the size of cash economy and encourage digital economy which I have questioned long ago.
There are some more interesting to say on this contentious and controversial subject  and that can wait .why the hell at an age when I invest time in discussions and reading on mystical states, nature and even religion, I am at meditation because it gives more pain and pleasure in documenting something for posterity.
"Like the scent of flowers was making love with the song of birds",I am romancing with my discipline Economics..
good night friends 

I am a simple person, but complex personality to others

Dsam on Dsam-from my Adelaide Diary 1
memoirs

I am a simple person and yet a complex personalty to others
 I have made some sweeping statements about those who wrecked
and ruined our economy and also molested my Tamil land
in all its manifestations as the Tamil rulers here were not really leaders 
and yielded to all kinds of machination.and yet I feel happy
I have done my job listening to my conscience and heart .I am not anybody's puppet


I am transparent and outspoken and not a controversial subject
Recent developments?/revelations have made me to
realize and internalize the fact that
I must choose not to say anything  not at times
but many a time  practicing silence ,the language I must learn
I am grateful to the Lord for everything he has given


(Feeling frustrated with the tardy progress in work,looked inward,
with the supportive notes from Adelaide )