There is an encouraging news that the rupee has
appreciated against the major currencies, and the official inflation figures
are good .The news of the arrest of Nirav Modi done close on the heels of the
election process looks like a well scripted drama and the greatness of the
modern chowkidar in new India is that everything under the sun will be better
exploited for getting the second innings .
Kindly remember Vijay mallaya is still safe there
and this fellow also knows how to prolong the case and also prevent the home
coming ?The PM need not labour much .True he will be scared by the quantum of anger and resentment stemming from the right thinking Indians and
he is not worried much as alliance arithmetic will help sail the turbulent
political waters.
The greatest advantage for the first chowkidar
of the country is that the opposition remains more divided and the congress is treated as the unwanted
baggage in some states and that will
turn out to be a great advantage for the
BJP’s bandwagon. More importantly the opposition is not truly united in a
concerted way and many regional parties
are scattered and there is no common bond to unite except the agenda to oust BJP .
Despite Modi giving ample opportunities to the opposition
right from his launch of the draconian
measure of demonetization ,later fused with GST at savage rates at one stage
followed by defense scandal and war hysteria hyped up to win the election and
so on,the opposition has not capitalized his mistakes and collared him .There
is so much of mutual distrust among the opposition and in a three cornered or
sometimes four cornered tests BJP stands to gain .Under normal circumstance for
the suffering he caused to the people and the economy at large he must be
unseated from power but it is very easily
said than done
The northern region gave more votes in 2014 .Given
the great diversity in geography and
Hindi heartland enjoying a privileged treatment under Modi’s regime now ,North- south polarization shall be
expected .In any case the south had always remained from the Modi wave for long
and had not shown any inclination towards BJP,and its brand of
Hindutava religion based politics .Now there is no wave in favour of
PM.with the exception of a the blind supporters and loyalists to the party , there is more
hate ,anger and resentment against him ,especially in the south.The media
manufactured stories of thumping majority will remain as stories .and yet in
the absence of unity among the opposition ,he has a competitive edge .
Old Allies
have left and new ones have joined and in a few cases they have been pressurized
and intimidated to join . With the exit of some friends out of NDA, and a
plausible fear that there might be erosion in vote in a few northern and north
eastern states ,new strategy of
political alliance has been struck in the south and the fond hope is that
the takeover of AIADMK, will help get a few seats and that will be a bonus and
cushion .Indeed the exercise started,
long before , once the traditional allies parted company .
As many party leaders have been trapped in cobweb
of mega corruption , the ruling BJP having the command over the investigating
agencies ,intimidated a few potential parties to strike alliance. In TN it is
more visible while in other regions it is more subtle .It is more like take over in the language of corporate and it
is hoped that political joint venture might give some conjectural advantage in
the south. To what extent YSR and other
regional outfits will augment votes and lift the spirit of BJP is not clear
All the experts say about the significant role
of the alliance arithmetic numbers, and
of course the money and muscle powers .But the grass root workers, if they have anger
against Modi will not bother to vote .The
touring PM in the last 4 years plus did
not bother to share the grief over many
natural calamities, but made 4 trips in the recent months even while the border
was bristling with war tensions and that speaks of the nervousness and craziness to get some
seats and also hypocrisy in a region
where the party is virtually nonexistent
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