Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Demystifying the economics of demonetization :excerpts from child's guide


Before 2014 election 2014 Modi, promised growth , jobs and liquidity. He accused of Manmohan’s government for its jobless growth and mega corruption; so the election was fought on the theme of eradicating corruption..He thundered with his 56’’ chest ,in case he was elected to power  within 100 days he will bring the black money and deposit 15 lakhs in each individual bank account.All of us know what had  happened  in the last five years .His critical inability to unearth the black money and the compulsion to face the assembly elections in five states in the mid course of his political journey ,propelled him  ,to take another false step in the form of note ban to divert and distract attention.This he did despite the advice in well informed educated circle who know the subject that note ban was no solution to tackle black money .It was another irrational measure done in the name of rationality and sincerity that here is a person  who is bold enough  to collar the culprit ,and mop up the black money and distribute it  to the poor !

Did he deliver 2 crores job ? was there any meaningful growth ?Do the economic survey and the interim budget really tell the truth ? why there was no transfer ency and hesitancy leading to the resignation of  straight forward people leaving the organisational structure ?  in releasing the employment data? Unemployment is 45 years low and economic growth is five years low !
what has happened to his election eve speech to bring swiss black money ?when will 15 lakhs amount be deposited in bank of each individual' account ?
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was the war against black money in 2016 ,notional or real? was it a surgical strike against the black money holders ?or a massive carpet bombing against poor and lesser privileged ? Did any rich man stand in the queue or accidentally die?   


 
  The depressing reality, the crude reality is that ,Growth has faltered not because there was something wrong with the economy in 2016  but because it was derailed by a stupid measure called demonetization which created  a serous cash and credit crunch leading to fall in aggregate demand and a rise  in unintended inventories ,fall in  investment along with the fall in consumption.This resulted in declining  ,jobs  and later virtual  disappearance of jobs;, and liquidity was sucked in for long and the banks flooded with cash could not lend for varied reasons ; this is how the recessionary tendencies got generated and enveloped the economy and intensified the employment crisis which  had been worse earlier .. .


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