Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Prof D sam will you explain how 2016 is demonetization experiment different from that of earlier episodes ?


Q :Sir Was demonetization  administered earlier ?
Did it cause any problem to the general public ?

D Sam :It was administered in 1946 and 1978 and on both occasions  the demonetization of  higher denomination notes  was not a problem as it was not much in circulation and held by the affluent and its percentage in total money supply was limited .

Kindly remember this denomination constituted a tiny fraction - just 1,3%  of total money supply(as compared to 86% of money supply in 2016); and even many educated and middle class people would not have seen that note..Even a serious student like me hazily remember that episode itself  as it was not all an event for the majority of the population .I was doing M Phil in Pune gokhale Institute at that time …But the case in 2016 is distinctly different..It was an arrogant and stupid measure undertaken, unmindful of the calamity which would visit a larger population especially when you operate with empty hands while receiving the torrential pouring of cash into banks like flash flood

 Just  imagine  the devastating effects of this measure  on informal economy, construction and farmers and so on  with shortage of liquidity choking the economy. Given the data that there are 1,34000 bank branches and  more than  2 lakhs ATMs ,  If on an average 500 people stand in each bank imagine  how much human resources would have been lost , asked P Chidambaram..He may not be the right person now to ask this question as serious charges are leveled against his credentials and track record in money making madness.I do not have any respect for him .

Dr Manmohan  was absolutely right in saying that it was a monumental management failure, an organized loot and a legalized plunder. He may not have the moral right to say as the congress government  he presided over fell on the weight of corruption charges but still  the right person  to  ask this question ,say backed by his administrative experience  and economic insight to say and argue that certainly it is not the right measure or an ideal instrument to tackle the problem.

 Especially when it is undertaken in isolation without any solid package of measures to strike at benami holding of real estate and billions of dollar worth gold and foreign money ..the non currency components  of black wealth /corruption is substantial  and it is growing ..It is like a hydra headed monster and there is a fertile climate in the country  for its growth .The pity is  that recently the Finance Minister has made a revelation that not all the  money deposited in Swiss banks is black money.

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