Musing on election 2019:the choice is between the devil and deep sea ;Fractured opposition will favour Modi in select pockets

As the least politicized individual and with all my love for the country, I do not have any regard for the current tribe of most of the  politicians cutting across all political parties .They are the problems rather than solution ;most of us love our country but we do not like our leaders as most of them are not difficult to dislike.. And yet democracy keeps them alive and kicking and people do choose between the devil and deep sea one election after another election. There is just no other alternative

Election in India is more like a festival or watching cricket match and money and muscle power largely determine  besides caste equations  and the apathy of the middle class in not voting ..If this indifference prevails and the opposition votes are  fragmented and split ,  Modi  will have an effortless  second innings which he does not deserve  not with a thumping majority but get sufficient number of seats ;in case there is deficiency ,that will be adjusted in the post realignment of groups  .on the other hand if there is a mass hysteria like post- emergency  kind of situation(1975)  the common man can easily bring down  the 56’’ chest tall leader who has thrived well on lies and more lies..Will it work now ?

Under normal circumstances the note ban alone must unseat him but alas here Indian democracy is different and shaped by the money power and whims of the  vested interests of corporate power. People know that demonetization virtually put the brake on jobs, income and growth, thereby  immiserizing  the poor and dislocating the migrants , and also making many others to lose life  .

Election is a function of many variables and it is very difficult to delineate the adverse effect of  the great  exogenous  disturbance  on the well functioning  and  fastest growing economy..The greatest tragedy of this country is that elections are not won on the basis of economic issues alone .Multi cornered contests split the opposition votes  and each region exhibits its own battle lines depending upon the leaders  and their  egos  and  electoral calculations about alliance arithmetic .The saddest irony is even those who do not subscribe to  the ideology  of the ruling  party  will be keen to strike alliance , proving thereby that  they are  for sale  for a higher fee .sometimes it might  help the ruling party to win or spilit votes The Marxists where they are strong  have not roped in congress with the exception of TN where DMK has called the shot and they are together .In Delhi the congress must have joined with the ruling party there but they did not .All these will profit BJP